Upper Valley Housing Market Outlook 2026

What’s ahead for New Hampshire & Vermont real estate?

If you live, work, or invest in the Upper Valley, you’ve probably felt it: the market isn’t the wild roller coaster of 2021–2022 anymore, but it’s still tight, competitive, and expensive. As we head through 2026, buyers and sellers from Lebanon and Hanover to Enfield, Grantham, Norwich, Hartford, and Woodstock all want to know the same thing:

Are we finally heading toward a more “normal” market?

The short answer: we’re slowly moving that way, but low inventory and high demand will keep the Upper Valley leaning in favor of sellers—especially in well-located, turn-key properties.

Below is a big-picture look at what’s happening nationally, what’s going on across New Hampshire and Vermont, and how it all translates to our local Upper Valley towns.

National Snapshot: A Slow Thaw, Not a Crash

After a tough couple of years with 7%+ mortgage rates and low inventory, national housing economists are cautiously optimistic about 2026:

• Mortgage rates are easing, but not plunging. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) expects 30-year mortgage rates to drift down from the mid-6% range in 2025 toward roughly 6% in 2026, as the Fed slowly cuts rates.
• Home prices: modest growth, not big drops. NAR’s 2026 outlook calls for around 2% national home-price growth, with lower monthly payments thanks to slightly cheaper borrowing costs and rising incomes.
• Sales volume is rebounding. One national forecast expects home sales to rise roughly 14% in 2026 as affordability improves and more sellers finally unlock their “golden handcuff” low-rate mortgages.
• Long-term mortgage rates are around the low 6s. As of late January 2026, average 30-year rates sit near 6.1%, the lowest in more than three years, and economists expect further gradual declines, not another spike.

What this means for the Upper Valley:

Nationally, we’re not looking at a crash. We’re looking at a slowly improving affordability picture, slightly more inventory, and more transactions. But in a high-demand region like the Upper Valley with limited land, job anchors like Dartmouth and DHMC, and strong in-migration you should expect continued price stability or modest appreciation, not fire-sale bargains.

New Hampshire Overview: Record Prices, Slower Growth

Statewide New Hampshire data gives us important context for Grafton and Sullivan County towns like Lebanon, Hanover, Enfield, Grantham, Plainfield, and Claremont:

• In 2025, the median single-family home price in NH hit a record $535,000, up about 3.9% from 2024—the smallest annual gain in a decade, but still an increase.
• The NH Affordability Index sat at 58 in 2025, meaning the median household earns just 58% of the income needed to buy the median-priced NH home at current rates (it was around 200 in 2013 and above 100 as recently as 2021).
• Inventory remains very tight, with roughly 2 months of supply, far below the 5 to 7 months considered a balanced market.
• Zillow estimates New Hampshire’s average home value to be around $490,000, up 2.7% over the past year, with homes going pending in about 19 days.

NH 2026 outlook:
Most forecasts call for continued low inventory, modest price growth, and slightly better affordability as rates drift down and incomes edge up. Properties in job-centered regions like the Upper Valley are likely to outperform the state average in both pricing and competition.

Vermont Overview: More Inventory, Still Strong Demand

On the Vermont side think Norwich, Hartford/White River Junction, Quechee, and Woodstock—the story is similar but with its own twist:

• By the end of 2025, Vermont’s overall median sales price landed around $385,000, up about 5.8% year-over-year. Single-family homes averaged around $435,000 (up ~5%), and condos around $380,000 (up ~4%).
• Several local analyses note that inventory has started to rise, yet prices remain firm—buyers are more selective, but good properties still move.
• NAR’s 2026 forecast suggests both the nation and Vermont should see higher sales volume this year, as improved affordability coaxes sidelined buyers back into the market.

VT 2026 outlook:
Expect slightly more choice than in the pandemic frenzy years, but still nothing resembling an oversupplied market. Well-priced homes in commuter-friendly or lifestyle-rich towns (Norwich, Hartford, Woodstock, Hartland, etc.) should continue to see strong demand, particularly from buyers relocating from higher-cost metro areas.

Zooming In: The Upper Valley’s Core Towns

Every Upper Valley town has its own micro-market, but a few consistent themes are showing up across recent local reports:

Hanover & Lebanon (NH)

• Recent market reports have shown very strong pricing in Hanover, with luxury and near-campus properties posting seven-figure medians and big year-over-year jumps in some months.
• Lebanon continues to be a workhorse market for the region: strong demand from medical, higher-ed, and remote-work buyers, limited inventory, and solid rental demand keep both owner-occupied and investment properties in play.
• Expect 2026 to bring continued competition for updated, well-located properties, especially near DHMC, Dartmouth, and along key commuter routes (I-89, Route 120, Route 4).

Enfield, Grantham, Plainfield, and “Commuter Ring” Towns

• Towns like Enfield, Grantham (Eastman), Plainfield, Canaan, and Springfield (NH) offer greater value and more space than Hanover/Lebanon.
• As rates ease and more would-be Hanover/Lebanon buyers get priced out of the core, 2026 should continue the trend of spillover demand, especially for:
  • Properties with lake access or water views
  • Homes with ADUs or strong rental potential
  • Properties with good internet and home-office setups

Norwich, Hartford/WRJ, Quechee & Woodstock (VT)

• In Woodstock, a recent 2025 year-end report showed 54 single-family sales with a median price of about $922,500 and average days-on-market of around 93—a sign that luxury and second-home demand remain strong, but buyers are taking more time and negotiating more than in 2021–22.
• Norwich and Hartford/White River Junction see steady demand from both full-time residents and remote workers who want Vermont’s feel but easy access to Hanover and Lebanon. Prior reports noted some softening, with longer days on market in places like Norwich, but pricing remained elevated.
• Quechee and resort-style communities continue to behave like hybrid primary/second-home markets, with short-term rental regulations now a key factor for investors.

What Buyers Should Expect in 2026

f you’re hoping to buy in the Upper Valley this year, here’s the reality:

1. Affordability will improve slightly. Lower rates, slower price growth, and rising incomes mean your monthly payment may finally come down a bit, even if headline prices don’t.
2. Inventory will still feel tight. Even with a bit more inventory in Vermont and a gradual loosening in New Hampshire, we’re nowhere near the 5–7 months of supply that defines a balanced market.
3. Well-priced homes will move quickly. Turn-key homes in Lebanon, Hanover, Norwich, and Woodstock will continue to draw multiple offers if they’re priced correctly and marketed well.
4. Strategy matters more than ever. Strong pre-approval, local lender relationships, and a clear offer strategy (price, terms, and contingencies) will separate successful buyers from frustrated ones.

What Sellers Should Expect in 2026

If you’re thinking about selling a home in the Upper Valley this year:

1. You still hold the advantage—if you price correctly. This is no longer “name your price and watch the offers roll in,” but low inventory and solid demand mean well-priced homes should sell on favorable terms.
2. Condition and presentation are huge. With buyers becoming more choosy, listings with strong staging, professional photos, video, and clear property information will stand out and command higher prices.
3. The timing window still matters. Several Vermont and national forecasts point to stronger buyer activity as we move into spring and early summer, especially if rates tick down further and more pent-up buyers re-enter.
4. Upper Valley demand is durable. Anchors like Dartmouth College, DHMC, and regional employers keep a steady stream of buyers—faculty, medical professionals, families, and remote workers—cycling through the market.

Final Take

Put it all together, and 2026 in the Upper Valley looks like:

• Mortgage rates: Easing into the low-6% range, maybe flirting with the high-5s at times.
• Prices: Modest upward pressure in most Upper Valley towns, especially in desirable locations and price points; flat to slightly up in a few segments where inventory grows.
• Inventory: Still below normal, but slowly improving—more choice than the height of the pandemic boom, still far from a buyer’s market.
• Opportunities:
  • For buyers who are prepared, 2026 offers a chance to get into the market with slightly better affordability and a bit less frenzy.
  • For sellers, especially in core towns like Hanover, Lebanon, Norwich, Hartford, and Woodstock, this may be an excellent window to list before we see a larger wave of inventory and more price sensitivity.

Sources

• NAR 2026 Forecast Summit Predicts Positive Recovery — National Association of REALTORS® forecast on home sales and market direction. 
• Realtor.com 2026 Housing Forecast — National forecast on mortgage rates, price changes, and inventory. 
• 2026 Real Estate Outlook: What Leading Housing Economists Are Watching — Housing economist insights. 
• NAR Forecast: Home Sales Expected to Jump 14% in 2026 — Mortgage rate and sales outlook commentary. 
• Redfin’s 2026 Predictions: Welcome to The Great Housing Reset — National price and affordability forecast. 
• Zillow Predicts Major Mortgage Change for U.S. Housing Market — Projected home value trends for 2026. 
• Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast for 2026 | Bankrate — Mortgage rate projections for 2026. 
• 2026 Housing Market Forecast: Mortgage Rates, Prices & Buyer Outlook — Consensus mortgage rate forecast among major industry sources. 

• New Hampshire & Lakes Region Real Estate Outlook for 2026 — 2025 median price and 2026 trends in New Hampshire. 
• New Hampshire Housing Market: 2025 Home Prices & Trends — Statewide Zillow data showing price trends up through late 2025. 
• Housing Prices Level Off in Much of New Hampshire, While Surge Continues… — Historical price trend perspective in New Hampshire. 
• May 2025 Housing Market Update for New England — New England region housing trends (inventory & buyer activity). 
• Vermont Market Report – Mid-Year 2025 — Price trend continuation in Vermont.